This is not to plug my own work. It’s just that I have covered US-Israel relations in some depth. Readers might find my second book, Straight Power Concepts helpful in navigating the news coverage.
Those curious could feasibly limit their reading to chapters 2, 3, and 4. In those chapters, the reader will hopefully come away with a better sense of US-Israel relations—and I discuss Iran quite a bit as well.
Tensions between Iran and Israel date back decades. One need bear in mind that the tensions between Tehran and Washington are closely related to the tensions that lie between Tehran and Tel Aviv. In 1979, Iran underwent the Iranian Revolution, whereupon the West-favored Shah was overthrown by a theocracy headed by the Ayatollah Khomeini. Since 1979, Iran has been noncompliant with US designs in the Middle East and has provoked Uncle Sam’s wrath for the last 45 years. When Israel became an adjunct to US power in the 1950s, the former adopted the latter’s point of view. Things have been tense ever since.
Israel joined the nuclear club in the 1960s. The United States now had a nuclear-capable ally in the region. This gave Israel considerable prestige, and therefore Israel has always been leery of Iran joining the club; Israel fears the United States developing a close relationship with Iran. Likewise, Washington is not thrilled with the idea of a critical change in the balance of regional power. Therefore, both do not want to see Iran become a state with nuclear weapons.
There is much hysteria in the US news commentary about Iran’s so-called nuclear ambitions. In 2015, the United States and Iran entered into an agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As summarized by the Council on Foreign Relations:
Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief.
Trump put the JCPOA through the shredder in 2018 and Iran is now enriching uranium at higher levels.
According to an April 15 report in the Wall Street Journal:
[R]epeated U.S. intelligence reports, including last month's annual national intelligence assessment, have said there is no evidence that Iran has resumed work on the production of a nuclear missile….
Iran is enriching uranium at 60 percent (weapons-grade is 90 percent), and therefore has enough *near* weapons-grade uranium for maybe three bombs.
That said, if Iran isn’t at least pondering a nuclear weapon—I’m sure it’s crossed their minds—I would be very surprised. The so-called “shadow war that exists between Israel and Iran has recently escalated to Israel attacking an Iranian consulate building in Damascus, killing a number of Iranian officers. Iran in response launched hundreds of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles at Israel. This was described by some observers as “choreographed,” pointing out that Iran made efforts to minimize destruction and casualties, and gave regional powers plenty of heads up, which was shared with Israel, the United States, and others. Israel’s multitiered anti-missile system proved truly impressive, but Israel had American help, British help, French help, and Jordanian help. And they all had 72 hours of heads up.
Iran is routinely described as a regional lunatic; but you don’t stay in power for 45 years by being halfwitted and mercurial. Moreover, the intelligence communities from the United States and Israel have described the Iranians as rational actors. What we saw over the weekend was control and calculation.
What we see next might not be. Biden is hoping Israeli PM Netanyahu stays calm, but it would seem Netanyahu has chewed through the leash. The future of Gaza and the region are uncertain. What seems certain is the United States supplying Israel with weaponry.
Tending to Israel’s militancy is conventional doctrine for whoever sits behind the Resolute desk. Militancy is Israel’s job; it’s expected of them. But there are lines that it’s expected to color inside of. Biden has done a lot of private grumbling, so Netanyahu knows very well the boss is not happy. Netanyahu doesn’t seem to care. But he might if Israel attacks Iran and gets more than it bargained for and the boss stays home—which it has said it plans on doing.
Fun fact: Prior to the weekend attacks, Iran had not invaded or attacked a neighbor in the modern period. Can Israel make the same claim?
https://www.amazon.com/Straight-Power-Concepts-Middle-East/dp/0745327095
