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May 11, 2018

Trump and Iran

Former president Jimmy Carter recently stated in a CNN interview, "When a president signs an agreement, it should be binding on all his successors, unless the situation changes dramatically, and it hasn't changed." Carter of course is right. The situation regarding Iran has not changed dramatically, or undramatically for that matter.

By all accounts, Iran has been in compliance with the terms established by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has watched Iran like a hawk and has reported no violations. As mentioned in the Washington Post (May 8, 2018), the IAEA's director general, Yukiya Amano, "told the agency’s 35-nation board of governors [in March] that Iran has complied so far with every request made by his inspectors."

Iran's compliance is unsurprising. There was no evidence prior to the nuclear agreement that Iran was moving in the direction of weaponizing its low-enrichment nuclear program. They therefore have nothing to hide, and much to potentially gain economically by cooperating.

However, the agreement between Iran and the so-called P5+1 (the United States, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) was never really about nuclear weapons or Iran posing an actual threat. As repeatedly expressed by members of the intelligence communities in both the United States and Israel, Iran is a rational actor. It always bears repeating that over the last hundred years, the number of countries invaded by Iran is zero. While it possesses adequate defense capabilities, Iran lacks the capacity for power projection. Iran's military budget is similar to that of Greece and smaller than that of Mexico.

Yet, for decades Iran has been painted as diabolical and devious. After the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Iran refused to operate as a US client, as it had under the Shah. In the realm of US foreign policy, this is a mortal sin. But the diplomacy between the Obama White House and Tehran—with presidents Obama and Hassan Ruhani conversing on the phone—signaled a shift. Behind all the talk of nuclear weapons was simply the possible thawing of relations.

The Obama administration apparently deemed it was time to slowly bring Tehran back into the fold. As a matter of course, this was all to the absolute horror of Israel and Saudi Arabia. If US-Iran relations reverted to the way things were before 1979, this would diminish Israeli and Saudi prestige. Hence, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's repeated and frenzied presentations and talk of Iran's "tentacles of terror."

The JCPOA was of course a good idea. Despite Iran not seeking a weapons program, transparency and prevention never hurt. No rational person wants to see Iran with nuclear weapons, in the same way that any rational person would prefer the United States and Israel and all nuclear states disarm and decommission their programs. It is worth noting that Iran advocates for the Middle East being a nuclear-weapons-free zone. Tehran is also a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel does not. Israel is not.

President Trump's withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, on the other hand, was of course a bad idea. This sentiment is naturally shared all over the world. Within the United States, only 29 percent of Americans support withdrawal from the agreement (Reuters/Ipsos). A recent poll by the Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) organization, which conducts surveys of international relations scholars, revealed that 94 percent of scholars would disapprove US withdrawal.

The knock-on effects of Trump's decision remain to be seen. US withdrawal could embolden hardliners in Iran. The country's moderate president—described by the New York Times as the "chief loser" in the current situation—is being projected as weak and a dupe of Washington. Though it is impossible to determine as yet how Tehran will respond, hardline elements there are already making the case for reinvigorating nuclear activities. "We will break the cement of Arak," said one member of Iran's parliament, referring to a nuclear facility near that town (NYT, May 9, 2018).

Though Trump has left open the possibility of negotiating a new agreement, British foreign secretary Boris Johnson recently revealed an international offer to augment the one that already exists. "Britain worked alongside France and Germany to find a way forward," Johnson recently said at the House of Commons, "that would have addressed the [American] president's concerns and allowed the US to stay in the JCPOA, but without reopening the terms of the agreement." Such efforts were not successful.

Much like Trump's approach to healthcare, he would rather destroy something rather than improve something. He would rather create instability and chaos, which have serious and real effects on people's lives, a non-priority for this president. What will unfold in the short to midterm is unknown and unpredictable.

Nevertheless, the White House's decision only adds to an already unstable region, possibly creating the conditions for nightmarish scenarios. Unfortunately, anything is possible. President Trump's specific calculations are unknown, but likely involve Israeli and Saudi interests.

When one filters out the noise of personality and the endless scandals, Trump's administration bears a distinct resemblance to that of George W. Bush. And the message Bush sent to the world after 9/11 was, if you wish to be left alone by the United States (or Israel), you'll need a nuclear weapon. That message has been broadcast once again.

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