Netanyahu has spent much time and effort in recent years trying to convince Americans and Israelis that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel; we might recall his speech before Congress in March of this year (see Mar. 4, 2015, blog post). With talk of tentacles and terror, the message from the prime minister's office has been that Iran's agenda is the following: develop nuclear bomb, launch bomb into Tel Aviv. This despite the fact that no evidence exists that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program, and boasts a very long history of not invading or attacking its neighbors.
A key paragraph in Eldar's essay features a quote by an unnamed Israeli Foreign Ministry official:
"I will tell you something that they don't tell you in the Foreign Ministry," the official said. "The agreement [with Iran] looks good to anyone not engaged in governmental public diplomacy. That includes the [military] chief of staff and many senior officials in the intelligence community. We understand that the Iranian threat has been deferred for a far longer time than we ever imagined in our rosiest dreams, with minimal danger for Israel."
The crucial distinction made here is between those engaged in public diplomacy and those whose job it is to look at the world in a judicious, informed manner.
When members of the military and security services look at Iran, they don't see what we're told to see. As remarked in the Israeli press in 2012 by then Israeli military chief Maj. Gen. Benny Gantz, "the Iranian leadership is composed of very rational people." That same year, Martin Dempsey, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made precisely the same judgment in a CNN interview with Fareed Zakaria: "The Iranian regime is a rational actor." One has to look for them, but similar assessments by similar figures continue to crop up.
When one considers (1) the actual facts of Iran's domestic nuclear program, (2) descriptions of the leadership in Tehran made by Israeli and American officials in charge of defense and security, and (3) the almost comical hysterics of Israeli (and some US) politicians, it draws into question whether the recent agreement has anything to do with nuclear concerns. I can't find a reason to think it is.
