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February 5, 2014

Power and truth: the eroding middle class

Though sufficiently publicized on the front page of the New York Times (Monday), I felt this piece was post-worthy. The issue is a simple one: as the middle class diminishes, so does the corresponding goods market. Fewer in the middle class means fewer buying middle class items.

The article is good additional confirmation of what is repeatedly pointed out by informed observers: that the economy isn't back, that the problem is lack of employment, that deficit paranoia is nonsense, that spending stimulates growth, and that wealth does not trickle down. However, it was the following passage I found of particular interest:

The post-recession reality is that the customer base for businesses that appeal to the middle class is shrinking as the top tier pulls even further away. 
If there is any doubt, the speed at which companies are adapting to the new consumer landscape serves as very convincing evidence. Within top consulting firms and among Wall Street analysts, the shift is being described with a frankness more often associated with left-wing academics than business experts.

While the label "left-wing academics" should be approached with caution, the overall point is one I have made in the past: namely, that history tells a left-of-center story. Two recurrences come to mind: (1) What is initially deemed controversial or branded as "leftist" or "Marxist" commonly moves toward the center over time. (2) Power routinely makes "leftist" observations. Examples abound, but two immediately come to mind.

Concerning the first, I habitually cite the work of American historian Charles Beard. In 1913, Beard published a study of the economic backgrounds (and therefore motivations) of the Founding Fathers. The power elite in the country were not impressed and the book was considered quite controversial. Today, the title is standard reading, and on the controversy scale would rate a zero. What changed was acceptance of the facts, not the facts.

The Federalist Papers are a good example of the second recurrence. Some of James Madison's analyses - that the population has progressive interests and therefore must be kept at bay - were they expressed by someone else in a different context, might be dismissed as Marxist class-conflict theory. But when the source is James Madison, naturally, no such reaction occurs.

What, then, is the upshot of the two phenomena? In short, power knows the truth. In tending to its own preservation, it must deal (at least a good part of the time) in non-ideological reality. The custodians of political and financial power, from the Founding Fathers to the current executives at GE, Sears, and J. C. Penney, share a certain pragmatism. In my Dec. 10, 2013, blog post a similar instance was addressed, noting that the major oil companies, along with many other large US corporations, are planning ahead for anticipated carbon-emission penalties. They know what's happening. They know it's a matter of time. And again, no one on the right is accusing Exxon Mobil of left-liberalism.

The decline of the middle class is just another case in point. Upon examining public opinion and how the private sector plans for the future, one can obtain a sense of where the center is.

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